Canada, Roethlisberger First Down Play Calling Provides Reason for Optimism

The revamped Steelers offense under new OC Matt Canada provides reasons for optimism that the new scheme can provide at least a foundation for the Steelers as they face one of the toughest roads ahead to qualify for the playoffs.

One of the keys to leverage the skills of first round pick Najee Harris and the new offensive line is to offer an educated mix of passes and runs on first downs.

NFL data compiled over the 2020 regular season signals that there is a defined value in passing on first down. One of the key metrics examined here is Expected Points Added (EPA), which measures, well, the expected points added from any play. It asks the question of how much value was added from the play and the higher the number, the better.

Knowing this, let’s look at first down EPA statistics across all 32 NFL Teams last season:

It checks out. Teams see a lot more value in passing on first down rather than running. It sets you up favorably for the next two downs, allowing you to see looks that are not strictly designed to stop the pass.

A point frequently made regarding the ideology behind the first down pass is if the throw falls incomplete, leaving the team with a long second down situation. And while that is a certainly valid concern, statistics point that teams tend to design these first down throws to foster high completion rates. Think screens or short routes that are thrown within a few seconds of the ball being snapped.

Let’s look at 2020 NFL QB first-down passing accuracy by target depth. Note: for these purposes, a short pass is anything less than 6 yards, a medium pass is anything from 6 yards to 15 yards, and a deep pass is anything beyond 15 yards.

Deep Comp. Pct: 759/1548 49.03% Medium

Comp. Pct: 1182/1871 63.17% Short Comp. Pct: 1975/2691 73.39% Bhind Line Comp. Pct: 1019/1243 81.9

The first thing we can pull from this graphic is that these first-down throws are certainly occurring a priority of the time (53.5% of the attempts) from behind the line and within 6 yards downfield. The second thing to note here is that there is a noted difference in completion accuracy on those passes closer to the line of scrimmage (77.7% completion rate) than there is further on down the field (56.1% completion rate).

All things being considered, a successful play-action game relies on establishing an effective run game. The investment into Harris as the first-round pick brings his 2,690 rushing yeads and 39 touchdowns over the past two seasons with Alabama into the mix. Harris’s noted strengths in power (particularly yards gained after contact- he had 820 of such in 2020 alone per Pro Football Focus) and agility (see his hurdle in the semi-final against Notre Dame) demands the respect of opposing defenses. The introduction of this skillset might force teams to stack more defensive players into the box, creating more open play-action passing lanes for a Hall of Fame QB to pick apart as the game wears on.

That is precisely what happened for the Steelers on Saturday night against the Lions. Canada showed patience in his first down play calling to set up a massive 46-yard gain by Najee Harris from a play-action throw by Ben. Look at the first down calls by Canada with Ben in the game:

A mix of different looks combined with different playstyles led to an opening across the middle of the field that the Steelers were able to take advantage of on the first play of the third drive.

Beyond the first down plays, passing lanes were established and 40% of Ben’s attempts were thrown over ten yards down the field. This is welcomed news after a season where 315 of Roethlisberger’s 501 attempts were in the air for less than six yards downfield, per Warren Sharp at Sharp Football Analytics.

Yes, it was the Lions. Yes, they were resting a handful of starters on both sides of the ball. But what a breath of fresh air and hope after the woeful predictability of last year.

As the season starts up, it will be interesting to keep an eye on whether the Steelers can continue to capitalize on these situations that can be established off of early down play calling.