The QB Competition - Trubisky v. Pickett

My favorite aspect of #SportsAnalytics is how it can lend insight into how a coach might be making his or her decisions. Back in April, Steelers Head Coach Mike Tomlin noted (among other things), that accuracy is one of the key traits he looks for in a quarterback. This was further supported by the General Manager at the time, Kevin Colbert, stating that it was “the most important trait a QB can have.”

One of the more intriguing elements of the past week has been the notion by Steeler beat writers to start Mitch Trubisky (even if Kenny is healthy) against the Dolphins this week, due to his performance in the second half against the Buccaneers.

Through the #R programming language and the nflfastR data package, one can evaluate how both Steelers QBs have performed so far this year. Interestingly enough, the results show a vast difference between Kenny Pickett and Mitch Trubisky, particularly when it comes to accuracy.

Completion Percentage Over Expectation (or CPOE) is a measurement of how accurate a throw is compared to what we would typically expect in that situation. In both early down and critical third down situations, Pickett’s averages have been exceedingly more accurate.

Further, QB Expected Points Added (EPA) measures how valuable a given play was in terms of putting the team in a position to score. Like above, the QB EPA averages for Pickett have been notably higher than Trubisky in each set of situations.

Of course, there are intangibles to consider in each situation, like Trubisky’s veteran experience. But whenever one dives into the analytics behind each QB’s performance and Tomlin’s consistent messaging, it is not a surprise to see who he is leaning on to start.