WEEK NINE: CHICAGO @ PITTSBURGH (-6, O/U 39)

Synopsis:

Þ Matt Nagy (31-25) vs. Mike Tomlin (148-80-1)

Þ Mon., Nov. 8, 2021 @ 8:15 P.M

Þ Weather Forecast (via nflweather.com)

Three Keys

Limit Fields Mobility

Throughout the season, a primary focus of the Steelers coaching staff and their players has been to focus on a singular offensive target and eliminate them from hurting the defense. It has worked so far against the likes of Stefon Diggs, Darren Waller, and Nick Chubb. Now, a different challenge has emerged in the form of Justin Fields.

Fields’ ability to create efficiency out of broken plays has been a threat to opposing teams so far this season. Last week against the 49ers, Fields averaged 10.3 yards a carry for 103 yards and a dazzling TD run out of a broken play.

Fields has particularly struggled, however, in pure pocket passing environments, ranking 34th out of 34 possible QBs by Pro Football Focus in passing grade. Fields’ most pasing attempts have come in the short middle of the field, usually on slants or other passing plays designed to have high completion rates.

The Steelers can kill two birds with one stone by deploying defensive sets that utilize linebacker spies over the middle of the field. Thus, the passing lanes are more crowded and the threat of Fields running is lessened.

Like any rookie QB, Fields has been particularly awful when blitzed this year and under pressure. The Bears offensive line has struggled in pass protection as well. Due to these reasons, expect a lot of RPOs or screens that can catch the Steelers aggressive front too far up the field. Collapsing the pocket will be of particular importance to bust up these designs.

Another area I think the Steelers could lessen the impact of Fields’ legs is through slot blitzes, similar to the type we were used to seeing with Mike Hilton over the past couple of years.

Sending Arthur Maulet from a particular side of the field can cause Fields to roll out to the other side or step up into the pocket, where things can break down quickly for such a young QB under pressure.

Execute the Run

One of the main reasons the Steelers were able to close out the game against the Browns last week was their execution of a balanced offensive game plan.

Mike Tomlin pointed out that the final pass play to Diontae Johnson on a crossing route that lead to a first down and ultimately put the game away was a result of Cleveland’s linebackers anticipating the run, thus opening up the passing lane for Diontae to hit.

The play would not have been as easy to hit if the continued development of Najee Harris does not happen. Against a Bears defense that ranks 24th in the league in terms of stopping the run (giving up an average of 125 yards per game), the Steelers should continue the formula of relying on the run to allow an aging Ben Roethlisberger to step into the game management role.

Looking at the Chicago run gap defense, they give up the highest efficiency when teams target the end gap, averaging a whopping .496 EPA per run. With no Kahlil Mack available for the Bears, the Steelers would be smart to target that area.

Continue Winning First Downs by Running

An interesting trend has continued to develop with how the Steelers are approaching their first down play calling, and it is in relation to the emerging dominance of Najee Harris.

The Steelers’ run game being successful and creating better first down situations has helped create flow and rhythm to their scheme. Largely, the consensus in the NFL Analytics community has been that teams are seeing higher value in throwing on first downs rather than running the ball.

One might think that would apply for the Steelers as well, so it is interesting to discover that they have shied away from that as the weeks have progressed. The direct reasoning may be unknown, but the overall efficiency of the Steelers’ offense has no doubt increased as well over those weeks.

Run blocking has been better and the Steelers are able to prolong drives more, leading to a better control of the game. This might just be a case of deploying this strategy until the offense begins to fail. Against a poor Bears run defense, though, I’d look for this trend to continue at least another week.