WEEK EIGHT: PITTSBURGH @ CLEVELAND (-3.5, O/U 42.5)

Synopsis:

Þ Mike Tomlin (147-80-1) vs. Kevin Stefanski (16-9)

Þ Sun., Oct. 31, 2021 @ 1 P.M.

Þ Weather Forecast (via nflweather.com)

Three Keys

Shore Up Run Defense

Against the Seahawks, the Steelers run defense game suffered a setback, seeing Alex Collins and Co. rush for 144 yards on 27 carries, good for 5.3 yards per rush. This attack particularly wakened the Steelers in the second half, as the Seahawks were able to prolong drives and keep their offense on the field, ultimately tying the game and sending it to overtime.

Through a combination of missed tackles and blown assignments, the Steelers let a team that had no success in the first half find their way back into a game and threaten the Steelers’ chances of victory.

Against the Browns, their rushing attack needs no introduction. D’Ernest Johnson had one of the best rushing games for a player this season against the Broncos, rushing for 146 yards and a touchdown on 22 attempts.

Running back Nick Chubb is one of the best rushers in the league, averaging 5.8 yards per carry and proving to be one of the best backs in terms of generating yards after contact.

The Steelers must improve their run defense if they want to stand a chance in a hostile environment against Cleveland.

The Browns also enter the game with one of the best run-blocking lines in the league. Equally important to eliminating the running threat is by jumping to an early lead, causing an injured Baker Mayfield or backup Case Keenum to have to throw to catch up.

Pressure the QB

Related to the first key is harping in on establishing an early lead to cause the Browns to abandon their run game and force them into passing situations. This can also be established by winning battles on first down and setting up long distance situations.

The Steelers must be aware of how they pressure the Browns, however. So far this season, Baker Mayfield has fared well against the blitz.

Per PFF:

The Steelers might be wise to utilize their week one defensive gameplan against the Bills, in which they relied on natural pressure from their front four to mix up schemes in the back end and confuse Josh Allen.

Granted, the Bills were much more of a pass first team and the Browns are quite the opposite. Therefore, jumping out to that early lead and winning the battle on first downs will be pivotal.

Win Battles Against Cleveland Front Seven

The Browns enter this game boasting one of the best front sevens in football, led by Myles Garrett and Jadeveon Clowney who has proven to be an excellent addition to their run defense. With the Steelers young, inexperienced line still developing, they face one of their toughest tasks yet in the Browns.

Per ESPN Analytics, the Browns are tied for first in the league in run-stop win rate at 33%. Getting Najee Harris going will be a difficult task. The Browns also feature three of the top five rushers in pass rush win rate (the Steelers have the other two in Watt and Highsmith).

Having Anthony McFarland back should give the Steelers a bit of juice in their offensive attack, as his speed at the running back position allows for the Steelers to be more creative in terms of the timing of play development from the snap. Against a defense that is able to rush the QB quickly and shut down the running game, McFarland’s speed in the screen game could be a key for the Steelers to exploit.