WEEK FOUR: PITTSBURGH @ GREEN BAY (-6.5, O/U 45.5)

Synopsis:

Þ Mike Tomlin (146-79-1) vs. Matt LaFleur (28-7)

Þ Sun., Oct. 3, 2021 @ 4:25 P.M.

Þ Weather Forecast (via nflweather.com)

Three Keys

Honestly, much of what was written the past few weeks still applies for this game. The simple fact is that the Steelers have not been able to take advantage of these situations. They are still failing on first down and not using Pat Freiermuth enough. On Sunday against the Bengals, much of what could go wrong did go wrong. Moving forward, let’s hope for a cleaner performance.

Sharper Play

It is no secret that Ben Roethlisberger is not as mobile as he used to be. Much of what transpired Sunday mirrored the same ailments affecting the team in the latter part of last year.

The 58 pass attempts for Ben combined with 19 targets for Najee (no matter how talented a RB you are, this is a major sign that things are not working for the offense as many of the attempts were checkdowns) were too high.

The offense lacks balance and continues to fail on first down at an abhorrently high rate.

Out of 31 possible first down plays on Sunday, the Steelers averaged 3.19 yards. On 11 plays, the offense gained 0 yards or less. Further, there still exists a serious lack of targets across the middle of the field. Per PFF, a whopping 6.2% of pass attempts this season for the Steelers have come in the intermediate center part of the field. Wide receivers aren’t getting open and when they are there is miscommunication or inaccurate passes coming from Ben.

The drives were also bogged down by the four holding penalties and two offensive pass interference calls, one of them being in a goal line situation.

The execution on Sunday was terrible. There is no need for any sort of analytics to discover that.

Balance the Offense More

One of the major question marks coming into the season would be how Matt Canada’s offense would be implemented within the scheme.

Through three games, the Steelers have run play-action on only 17.2% of play calls.

For reference, offenses seeing the most efficiency so far like the Browns and Chiefs are using it at rates of 31.3% and 29.3%, respectively.

Without any serious threat of a rushing attack, play action won’t work as well. That may explain why the Steelers are not deploying it that much. In order to balance things out, they must get better at running the ball so Matt Canada can fully deploy his offensive scheme.

A place to target for Najee and the Steelers would be to attack the ends of the Packers’ defensive front. Teams have seen the most efficiency here throughout the season, and the Packers rank middle of the road in terms of rush defense. On the road and in need of a balanced attack, I look for the Steelers to try their hand here.

Up the Pressure

The Steelers record of 75 straight regular season games with at least one sack came to an end against the Bengals, as the defense failed to register a single pressure on Joe Burrow throughout the game.

Of course, it must be acknowledged that the Steelers were without their top two pass rushers in TJ Watt and Alex Highsmith, both dealing with groin injuries. The lack of consistent, better yet any, pressure on the Bengals made the secondary’s job a lot harder throughout the day, allowing rookie Ja’Marr Chase to catch 4 passes for 65 yards and 2 scores.

With the best receiver in the league looming in Davante Adams and a surefire Hall of Famer in QB Aaron Rodgers, the Steelers must be able to generate more pressure on Sunday.

The Packers front may be exploitable this weekend as they are still without one of the best tackles in the league in David Bakhtiari and starting two rookies in C Josh Myers and RG Royce Newman.

So far in 2021, Aaron Rodgers ranks ninth fastest in the league in average time to throw at 2.63 seconds. Like most QBs in the NFL, Rodgers’ numbers under pressure and when blitzed are much worse than a clean pocket and no blitzing. Rodgers has thrown 2 INTs so far this season when in a pressured situation after only throwing 5 INTs in all of 2020.

If there is any Achilles heel in Rodgers’ game, it’s through generating pressure and cutting off the short passes that are a result of his quick time to throw. Deploying coverage screens that press the Green Bay receivers and providing secondary help over the intermediate part of the field (where Rodgers is 10/14 for 2 TDs and 164 yards so far this season) can limit the impact that Green Bay’s offense may have this weekend.