Week One: Pittsburgh @ Buffalo (-6.5, O/U 48)

Synopsis:

Þ Mike Tomlin (145-78-1) vs. Sean McDermott (40-29)

Þ Sun., Sept. 12, 2021 @ 1 P.M.

Þ Weather Forecast (via nflweather.com)

Three Keys

Running Najee to the left behind Moore, Dotson, and Green

When the Steelers released their first depth chart on Monday, many were raising concern that Chukwuma Okorafor was moved to right tackle and rookie Dan Moore, Jr. would be protecting Ben Roethlisberger’s blind side. While the prospect of a fourth-round rookie starting left tackle does raise some eyebrows, what we have seen from Dan Moore on the left side throughout preseason provides some hope. Per Pro Football Focus, in the two games Dan Moore, Jr. has played left tackle, he’s allowed zero pressures and graded out at a respectable 73.6 run-blocking average. Pair that with stud left guard Kevin Dotson (fourth-best run blocker in preseason per PFF) and run mauler rookie Kendrick Green (who has graded out at 66.9 in run blocking himself), and running towards the left looks to be a wise decision to generate as much effectiveness as possible.

Defending against Bills passing attack

In last year’s game between these teams, Stefon Diggs torched the Steelers secondary (missing Joe Haden) for 130 yards and a score. Offensive Coordinator Brain Daboll has played a huge part in helping to lift Josh Allen’s career off the ground by taking advantage of avoiding obvious passing situations and increasing the usage of play action (34% of snaps) & pre-snap motion (45% of snaps). For context, the Randy Fichtner 2020 game plan was to use play-action a mere 11% of the time and his team ranked last in the league in pre-snap motion for quarters 1-3. Per Warren Sharp of Sharp Football Analytics, the Bills lead the league in first down passing rate at 62%, above the NFL average of 54%. This scheme also led to Buffalo leading the league in offensive Early Down Success Rate. If I’m Keith Butler, I am recognizing this tendency and deploying more nickel and dime packages to provide the best matchup against their scheme.

Emphasize Front Seven Pass Rush

One way to throw off an MVP-candidate at QB, a WR unit featuring a top-5 WR, and one of the best play callers in the game is to hammer the blitzes early and often to cause as much disruption as possible. Luckily for the Steelers, they feature one of the best front seven units in the league and have a knack for pressuring the QB. Coming off a season in which they finished first overall in the league with 56 team total sacks, look for Keith Butler to deploy multiple looks that will break down the pocket. The addition of Joe Schobert this offseason and bringing back Devin Bush from injury will provide a nice boost in spying on Allen to limit his mobile abilities.

In terms of strategy, the interior line of the Buffalo appears to be its weakest link, per PFF grades. Against a Steelers interior unit featuring Cameron Heyward, Tyson Alualu, and Chris Wormley, look for the Steelers to invade the pocket continually all day.