WEEK THREE: CINCINNATI @ PITTSBURGH (-4.5, O/U 44.5)

Synopsis:

Þ Zac Taylor (7-26-1) vs. Mike Tomlin (146-79-1)

Þ Sun., Sept. 26, 2021 @ 1 P.M.

Þ Weather Forecast (via nflweather.com)

Three Keys

Last week I wrote about the three keys against the Raiders would be to limit Darren Waller, open up rushing lanes, and to guard Maxx Crosby. Only one of those happened and the Steelers lost the other two battles with only 114 yards rushing through two games and Ben already banged up after sustaining multiple hits throughout week two.

Here’s to hoping for more success for the Steelers this week:

Take Advantage of First Downs

One of the primary reasons the Steelers offense seems to be stuck in the mud is the lack of effectiveness in their first down play calling. Throughout the course of week two, the Steelers encountered 23 situations in which they could run a first down play.

The breakdown:

· 10 runs

· 13 passes

· Average Yards Gained: 3.95 Yards

· Average Expected Points Added (Efficiency of play): -.0154

· Nine (!!) plays ran for either no gain or negative yardage

In his press conference on Tuesday afternoon, Steelers HC Mike Tomlin mentioned that there were too many hits on Ben by the Raiders defense. Part of the reason, according to Tomlin, was the Steelers own offense putting themselves in long down and distance situations. This allowed the Raiders to tee off and dial up enhanced pressure schemes.

I noted before the season that teams across the NFL see more value in passing the ball on first down than running it. A potential fix would be for the Steelers to dial back on the first down running plays and call short to intermediate passes with high success rates.

Figure 1 - 2020 NFL First Down Play-Calling Efficiency

If this graphic is not enough to convince you, consider the EPA generated on each of the Steelers first down plays Sunday:

Of course, passing every single first down is not the goal in this scenario. The simple truth is that it can lead to better situations in later downs. If OC Matt Canada places more of an emphasis on that, and the Steelers execute the called plays in a better fashion, that can open a lot of the playbook.

Utilize Pat Freiermuth More

Via NFL’s Next Gen Stats, Ben Roethlisberger did not attempt any passes over the middle of the field beyond 7 yards on Sunday:

One of last week’s keys to the game was to open up rushing lanes more by utilizing the middle of that field. The perfect person to do that is Pat Freiermuth. Freiermuth has seen five targets so far this season and all five of them have been complete. In week one against the Bills, Freiermuth got open over the middle of the field and hauled in a critical reception for 24 yards to extend the Steelers drive.

One of the tendencies developing by opposing defenses to capitalize on the Steelers’ short passing game is to deploy a single high safety that takes away the middle of the field as the rest of the secondary presses in on the Steelers’ receivers. This forces Ben to make those difficult second level throws in tight windows.

The Steelers need to expand the route tree to create safer throws in this area. If Freiermuth is not getting open, taking the checkdown to Najee is not a bad option. Ben showed hesitancy in doing so on a couple plays on Sunday, one of these times leading to a sack. In week one against the Bills, the timing was off on these checkdowns to Najee.

If they can create more chemistry here, the Steelers might be able to utilize the middle of the field more and move with more efficiency down the field. This will be something to monitor moving forward for the Steelers.

Stay Disciplined on Defense

The Bengals are bringing into Heinz Field a balanced offensive attack that takes advantage of Joe Mixon’s talent to open the passing game.

Per Pro Football Focus, the Bengals ran a form of play-action on 34% of their plays in Week One that went for 96 yards off of 7 completions. In Week Two, the Bengals still ran play-action on 20% of their dropbacks but were less effective, only going for 16 yards with 2 interceptions.

To counteract the Bengals balanced attack and cause these issues for Joe Burrow, the Bears relied on front seven pressure and aggressive secondary play to create what Mike Tomlin likes to call “splash plays.”

The Bears front generated 14 total pressures off of 30 dropbacks and 4 sacks. The result of such pressure was chaos in the secondary as the Bears jumped on three passes for interceptions and caused an additional forced fumble off of a Tee Higgins reception.

For a Steelers defense that has only one takeaway through two weeks of play despite playing relatively well, staying disciplined in coverage and relying on generating pressure against a weaker Cincinnati OL can lead to a “get right” week in terms of Steelers takeaways.